So what were these other signs?
- New "57" registrations came into force on 1 September. have you seen as many news cars on the road this time? We haven't, which suggested to us that people were waiting just that little longer before changing cars.
- Bonfire night: over the past five years, it's been hard to ignore the huge amounts of money literally going up in smoke in the weeks leading up to, and including November 5th. This year, however, things seemed a lot quieter which told us that some discretionary spending was being cut back.
- Property: we have reached, and perhaps gone beyond the top of the property market. The evidence for this is all around - for sale signs lingering longer than you might expect on properties, fewer properties coming on to the market, and those that are there reducing prices in an attempt to keep our interest.
We feel that this probably means a difficult 2008. For start up and early stage businesses, this is bad news, especially if you're a technology business with little by way of traditional fixed assets. There's a saying (Donald Trump, I think) which says "if you owe the bank a little money, it's your problem; if you owe them a lot, it theirs." At the smaller end of the market we can expect tougher lending criteria (quantum, term, rate and covenants) - our message is "get the right people in place with the skills and experiece to strenthen your offering."
